勇氣是當你為了比你更高一層的存續而犧牲你自己的福祉
原文譯自Nassim Nicholas Taleb文章: The Logic of Risk Taking
我們的本性也許慣於對尾部風險”說不”。因為不用冒尾部風險就能賺錢的方法不計其數。不用複雜科技 — 這會導致脆弱和具未知尾部風險機率 — 就能解決問題(譬如說餵飽世界)的方法也不計其數。
昨天的一個消息讓生醫界發出不少聲音：健保署核定自費醫材的收費上限[01]。一開始聽到時相當難過，甚至感到生氣，心中不免開罵血汗、鬼島。政府用一顆石頭想止住特定貪婪者讓民眾受惠[05]，卻不免波及到生醫界。背後究竟發生了怎麼樣的問題？我們能做些什麼？
系統思考看自費限制：健保署為何砸下絆腳石？我們還能做什麼？-昨天的一個消息讓生醫界發出不少聲音：健保署核定自費醫材的收費上限[01]。一開始聽到時相當難過，甚至感到生氣，心中不免開罵血汗、鬼島。政府用一顆石頭想止住特定貪婪者讓民眾受惠[05]，卻不免波及到生醫界。-...
今天臉書被健保署自付差額醫材的新聞洗版了，主要是很多醫生跳出來砲轟健保署莫名其妙之舉，甚至也出現很多未來好的醫材會因為這個收費上限制度而放棄台灣的市場，然後台灣人的醫療就會崩壞！ 對於剛出院的我，剛刷卡付掉幾萬塊心導管暨冠狀動脈支架放置手術的費用，看到這新聞之亂，第一時間想的是能不能申請退費？因為 健保署, 收費, 醫院, 病患, 上限, 醫生, 醫材, 資訊, 手術, 心肌梗塞
Morris Pearl, Chair of the Patriotic Millionaires and former Managing Director at BlackRock, said: “In recent decades, wealth inequality has skyrocketed around the world. The growing gap between rich and poor has destabilised the global economy, exacerbated the rise of extremist politics, and frayed the very fabric of our social order. As an ultra-wealthy person, representing an organisation of like-minded wealthy people, I am asking the G20 to tax us
In an open letter to the G20, close to 300 millionaires, economists, and political representatives from almost all G20 countries call for a new international agreement on wealth taxes to “stop extreme wealth from corroding our collective future”.
to reduce dangerous levels of inequality; if they fail to tax extreme wealth, the results will be a perpetually weakened global economy, the decline of democratic institutions, and worsening social unrest
the vested interests in maintaining the current system, including billionaires, the fossil fuel sector, big pharma, defense, and industrial agriculture will continue to fight to prevent the transformative changes needed. To overcome our societal addiction to the current system will require a broad consensus and movement of movements around the shared goal of sustainable wellbeing for humans and the rest of nature
13 August 2023 -
G20 Leaders must tax extreme wealth
time lags involved in building dynastic fortunes ... Inequality of income must precede growing inequality of wealth, since wealth is simply the cumulative excess of income over consumption.So, given the current era of highly unequal incomes and social immobility, we can expect inheritance to play a much bigger role in explaining inequality for the generations now entering adulthood. That will include direct transfers of wealth, mainly via inheritances, as well as the effects of increasingly unequal access to education, early job opportunities and home ownership
Are we creating a society Jane Austen might recognise?
those born to families who lack the resources needed to give them a head start in life. More generally, it is likely to be economically and socially stagnant. A patrimonial society inevitably wastes much of its talent, instead putting its privileged children into positions of power and influence for which they may have little aptitude
the proposal to tax the unrealised capital gains of assets passed on through inheritance, which would substantially reduce inherited inequality. Precisely for this reason, it is the object of vigorous attacks from lobbyists for the wealthy
The wealth of the very top grew even faster ... Wealth for dynastic families has grown significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic...Dynastically wealthy families wield a great deal of political power, and use it to further their interests
Together 50 families hold about half of the wealth of the bottom half of all U.S.households, an estimated 65 million families, and their wealth grew at ten times the rate of ordinary families during the last 40 years.
This chart show the cumulative expected wealth transfers until 2030, by would region and wealth tier (in billion U.S. dollars).
International tax law distinguishes between an estate tax and an inheritance tax. An inheritance tax is a tax paid by a person who inherits money or property of a person who has died, whereas an estate tax is a levy on the estate (money and property) of a person who has died.[1] However, this distinction is not always observed; for example, the...
In economics, a gift tax is the tax on money or property that one living person or corporate entity gives to another.[1] A gift tax is a type of transfer tax that is imposed when someone gives something of value to someone else. The transfer must be gratuitous or the receiving party must pay a lesser amount than the item's full value to be...
A transfer tax is a tax on the passing of title to property from one person (or entity) to another. In a narrow legal sense, a transfer tax is essentially a transaction fee imposed on the transfer of title to property from one entity to another. This kind of tax is typically imposed where there is a legal requirement for registration of the...
we don’t need more do-gooder billionaires that give to charity — we need fewer billionaires.The problem isn’t really individuals making money. The problem is having an entire system that grows the wealth of billionaires at the expense of everything else we care about — including our democracy.... Wealth is concentrating
Many billionaires invest their fortunes in a way that only expands their own wealth and power, writes Chuck Collins, the director of the Program on Inequality and the Common Good at the Institute for Policy Studies.
去年遺贈稅總稅收高達576億元，以稅率10%推估，等於1年有近6000億元規模的資產，正在進行世代移轉……
廢除遺贈稅 吸引資金回流 建設台灣
馬英九的競選政見本來只說要將遺產稅免稅額及扣除額，提高到2600萬元，反而是謝長廷承諾要將免稅額提高到3000萬元，並將遺產稅最高邊際稅率由50% 降低到10%。但7月23日，工商協進會與劉兆玄早餐，要求將遺產稅先調降至20%，將來完全廢除。劉兆玄表示贊同
過去十幾年中華民國政府所推政策中最爛最爛的是哪個政策？我可以毫不猶豫地告訴你：就是在2008年將原本50%最高邊際稅率的遺產稅率，一舉降為10%。這個政策背後有太多太多的可疑之處
1：資本集中的必然趨勢[啟動LINE推播]每日重大新聞通知法國皮凱提（ThomasPiketty）教授的新書CapitalintheTwentyFirstCentury（我暫譯為《廿一世紀資本論》）獲得《紐約時報》極佳書評，而諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯曼甚至誇讚，此書是今年甚或最近十
遺產贈予稅當然可以課，但是資本家七、八十年行將入土才能被課一次遺產稅，且若生前安排得宜，就算課也可能課不到太多，對抑制資本累積效果還不夠。於是皮凱提遂主張：每年課「總資本持有稅」，例如每年1%或2%。這種資本持有稅就像是房屋稅、地價稅一樣，個人持有期間年年要繳，只是稅基不只是土地房屋，而是所有資產財富，包括股票、現金等等。皮凱提認為，既然資本報酬率動輒4%或5%，那麼抽個一趴兩趴稅資本家當然付得起，只是稍微減緩他們的資本累積速度而已……這些稅收他主張用於政府補助的教育與健保，而要透過健康改善與教育普及，去打破「富有資本家持續富有、貧窮底層持續貧窮」的社會不流動
保護個資對每個人都同等重要。但是對我們勞動階級而言，在開曼群島既無紙上控股公司、在瑞士銀行也無鉅額秘密帳戶，所謂資產個資云云，跟我們有什麼關係？在台灣擔任公職要公佈財產，這對一窮二白的人而言根本無所謂，也只有家財萬貫的大有錢人，才害怕錢財露白。更何況，全球各國資產帳戶互通資訊，是為了避免大富豪逃稅；而要求逃稅大戶如實繳稅，目的是要以此收入多做一些所得重分配的褔利措施，天經地義。此外，「公開互通財產帳資料」是只限於政府稅捐機關之間，而不是要向外人公開
等到資本累積集中之弊更凸顯，等到大部分人民都理解到社會真的是「of 1%、for 1%、by 1%」的時候，人民才會同意全球資產持有稅。皮凱提的貢獻，大概就是「還沒有見到棺材就提醒大家帶手帕」
Within a decade, however, the effect is reversed: inheritances increase wealth inequality since the different depletion rates widen the inequality in inherited wealth over time
Abstract. This article aims to measure and understand the role of inheritances in shaping wealth inequality. We use a quasi-experimental design and Swedish admi
rising inequality is legitimated by the popular belief that the income gap is meritocratically deserved: the more unequal a society, the more likely its citizens are to explain success in meritocratic terms, and the less important they deem nonmeritocratic factors such as a person’s family wealth and connections
many downplay the intergenerational privilege associated with gifting by reporting extended family histories of working-class struggle, upward social mobility and meritocratic striving
Inheritance fundamentally violates the meritocratic justice principle of society
Inheritance fundamentally violates the meritocratic justice principle of society. Despite the high level of wealth concentration and the fact that few peop
intergenerational transfers, such as inheritances and inter vivos gifts, play a significant role in underpinning wealth inequality. When inheritances and gifts exceed a certain threshold, the opportunities to accumulate more wealth are greatly expanded
Wealth inequality can limit people’s ability to accumulate human capital, carry out business projects, or cope with major economic crises. Focusing on France, Spain, the UK, and the US, this column shows that intergenerational transfers, such as inheritances and inter vivos gifts, play a significant role in underpinning wealth inequality. When inheritances and gifts exceed a certain threshold, the opportunities to accumulate more wealth are greatly expanded.
Debt measures typically ignore most assets – notably, the public sector’s real commercial assets – and some significant liabilities, including the present discounted value of public-sector pension entitlements
only New Zealand uses the IPSAS [International Public Sector Accounting Standards] as the basis for its financial-management system...
governments often base their fiscal rules on narrow debt and deficit measures
the accounts produced by the public sector focus on short- and medium-term cash flows – the general government budget deficit is a prime example – and on a subset of the public sector’s contractual liabilities, typically its gross or net financial debt
the value of land owned by the public sector. Property is usually the biggest single asset class in any economy, and governments tend to be the largest property owners, often by an overwhelming margin. Yet many governments report small (or even zero) property holdings; among those that do report land holdings, the average value is only about 25% of GDP.Public commercial assets (assets that can generate an income if professionally managed) are also frequently underreported, or not reported at all. And what is reported is likely to be undervalued, because management is often far from professional
Failing to account for these assets [fixed assets, financial assets, property assets, public commercial assets], and managing them unprofessionally, can cause lasting damage to the state’s ability to meet its obligations to current and future generations, including by undermining climate action
Public-sector pension obligations average 40% of GDP. Eight of the 24 countries – including five G7 countries – recorded negative public-sector net worth for 2020-21
producing conventional balance sheets that offer more reliable estimates of conventional net worth, which may well be negative. In order to manage assets and liabilities effectively, they must also produce comprehensive balance sheets (or intertemporal budget constraints), which include the present discounted value of anticipated future non-contractual revenue streams, such as taxes (implicit assets), and outlays, such as social security benefits (implicit liabilities).This would show the government’s comprehensive net worth
No one argues that we should not think about future generations. The real question is what current policies and fiscal commitments will better serve the interests of our children and grandchildren
Conservatives often make a big show of worrying about the debt burden that we are passing on to our children...
reckless disregard for the consequences of their actions
look at both sides of the balance sheet. What really matters is the difference between assets and liabilities. If debt increases, but assets rise even more, the country is better off — and so, too, are future generations. This is true whether one invests in infrastructure, education, research or technology. But even more important is natural capital
"Environmental debt" is different. It is a burden that cannot be eliminated with the stroke of a bankruptcy judge’s pen. Damage done today might take decades to repair and require spending money that could have been used to enrich the country. By the same token, wise spending to protect and rehabilitate the environment — like investments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions — would leave future generations better off even if financed by debt.Suppose we could estimate the direct benefits of such investments — for example, the increased output (or the reduced costs of repairing damage caused by wildfires, hurricanes and other extreme weather events), and the value of improved health and longevity from reduced air pollution — in money terms. What rate of return should we demand?...If we require a high rate of return (as former US president Donald Trump’s administration did when it set the bar at as much as 7 percent per year), there would be little investment in climate-change mitigation, and future generations would roast in a world where temperatures have increased by 3°C or more.Given the inevitable consequences of inaction, investments in climate mitigation should be seen as a kind of insurance. The payoffs are highest when the effects of climate change are most adverse, and when the value of money is particularly high. The required returns on “insurance investments” ought to be lower than the safe real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate. That rate has actually been negative in recent years; but even taking a much longer-term perspective, it has been around 1 percent, plus or minus 0.5 percent. The appropriate “discount rate” therefore should be markedly lower than 7 percent, lower even than the 2.5 to 5 percent rate used by former US president Barack Obama’s administration, and possibly even negative... what discount rate is required to achieve the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2°C. Allowing temperatures to rise permanently beyond this threshold poses unacceptable risks. The fires, hurricanes, floods, droughts, frosts and other disasters that we have been enduring are merely a preview of what this future would hold
view the matter from the perspective of “future generations.” What value do we place on our children? ... If we value them as much as we value ourselves..., we must account for how damage done to the environment today would affect their well-being
balanced budget multiplier: an increase in government spending will inject more demand into the economy than will be withdrawn by an equal increase in taxation, since some of the money taken by the tax would have been saved, not spent
SALZBURG — In 2009, while the world economy was still reeling from the global financial crisis, Nobel laureate economist Robert Lucas observed that “everyone is a Keynesian in the foxhole”. The implication was that, when an economy is faced with a severe economic shock, conventional fiscal policy norms must take a backseat to stabilization.
economic shocks of the past two decades were not freak occurrences but rather the product of a profoundly flawed and corrupt system
升學主義的來源，正是臺灣與東亞諸國所賴以經濟起飛的瀰漫全社會的無止境勤儉精神……這種勤儉精神的成分之一是無限制的工作投入。不只是低收入的勞工小販願意長時加班，逾時營業。連極高所得的名醫們也不惜觸法犯規，下班後不辭勞累在自家看診增加財富。勤儉精神的成分之二是延後消費，延後享受。東亞國家的人民並非不知如何奢侈誇示，享受財富。但通常會先勒緊褲帶，一家人克勤克儉到累積了令人心安的足夠資產後才開始放心享受辛勞的果實。以前半生的辛苦換取後半生的安逸，這是東亞各國共通的經濟思維……一分耕耘，一分收穫。勤能補拙。工作如此，準備考試當然也如此。如果把課本讀五次能考七十分，讀二十次能考八十五分，讀一百次能考九十分，很明顯的，學習的邊際效用是降低了。但是既然閒著也是閒著，為什麼不多讀它幾十次、幾百次，增加一分算一分呢？於是不論日夜，不論週末暑假，只要一息尚存，你就專心準備考試吧。無止境勤儉精神的勤就表現在這無休止的投入準備考試科目上。…儉就是「暫時」壓抑無益於考試的一切活動與享受。既然入學考試不考體育音樂，那為什麼要「浪費」時間上體育？為什麼不將音樂課挪來加強數學？喜歡看課外書？等考上大學再看吧！看報紙聽新聞關心世界大事？等考上大學再關心吧！想郊遊烤肉跳舞？等考上大學自然由你玩四年！於是所有與入學考試無立即相關的知識追求，人生關懷，個人興趣，乃至休閒娛樂，都在升學（以及它所代表的終身前途）考量下被暫時棄置一旁。暫緩不急的享受，這就是儉惡性升學競爭的根源是我們社會過度勤勉向上（至少就教育與升學而言）的精神
東亞文化中根深蒂固的勤儉精神。極端勤勞，也極端節儉。拼命賺錢，延後消費，到了可稱之為集體自我剝削的程度。後果是高額儲蓄，快速資本累積，快速成長。但這局勢稱羡的東亞經濟奇績背後，卻是惡劣的生活品質。環境保護、居住品質、文化教養等，都被視為不急之務，一切等賺夠了錢再慢慢彌補
美國的起源是清教徒尋找自由土地，其個人主義的「個人」，有信仰約束，自有分寸。現在，信仰淡薄，個人主義淪於自私。
獨立精神也顯示了個人主義代表的自由觀念，及其過度發揮後，因而出現的人情冷漠，與趨利忘義的嚴重弊端
大量資金已經用來炒作非生產事業
中產階層和他們原本是雇主群的富豪們之間，原本關係相當密切，現在由於富豪遷移他處……富豪們與他們中產階層僱員之間，也彼此脫了節
新出現的社會階層化，在這二十年來，遂與過去不同了。過去的富人、中產、貧寒三級區隔，其間生活方式與意識形態的差異，沒有今天各階層之間的距離，如此遙遠……
貧富差異的程度加大，各階層之間彼此異化，已經無法逆轉
一旦情況改變，整個地區，全部遭災……已經衰敗無法重振
中年人，也就常常是沒有可以傾訴自己情緒，分享成敗的伴侶
當人與人之間，只能以「利」相處時，人間不會再有人類情感
「我可以爲所欲爲，因爲我是勝者。」這個現象
跨國企業菁英與超級富豪階層也順勢取得了無以倫比的政治權力，他們可以凌駕政府、支配社會遊戲規則，並一步步的支解立意在保護弱勢群體、勞工與中產階級權益的經濟管制措施與社會保障體系。他們排斥任何限制其行動自由與資本回報的全球治理或監管機制，他們可以影響美國法律與國際規則，也可以左右國際貨幣基金與美國聯邦儲備理事會的觀點與政策
在華爾街推波助瀾之下，從1980年代末期開始美國帶頭進行大幅金融鬆綁，拆除金融防火牆，全面開放衍生性金融產品，並壓迫各國家全面解除跨國資本流動管制與放棄政府對匯率市場干預，其結果是大量資金湧入外匯與商品期貨交易套利，投機交易凌駕真實避險需求，熱錢在世界各地興風作浪，製造了一波波的金錢遊戲、資產泡沫與金融危機
金融自由化…驅使金融資本全面流向投機性的虛擬經濟，不但給所有國家帶來難以承受的系統性金融風險，也對實體經濟造成巨大的扭曲與干擾
國家機構逐漸喪失扭轉資本主義下所得分配趨向兩極化的能力，也逐漸失去維護弱勢團體享有社會晉升公平機會與保障勞動市場參與者基本權益的能力，更失去節制巨型跨國企業濫用市場壟斷權力的能力。因此民主作為「國家層次」的政治體制日漸成為一個空殼子，既無法維護公民的福祉，也無力滿足公民的政策需求，使其合法性基礎受到嚴重侵蝕
美國政治最大的難題是政黨與政治菁英都被少數利益集團綁架。軍工企業集團、網路科技集團、華爾街投資機構與大銀行、跨國能源企業、大型媒體集團、製藥與醫療集團等主要利益集團的代理人盤據了國會兩院的各個常設委員會。這些利益集團的還可以驅動大律師事務所、大會計公司、信用評等機構，與倚靠企業主捐贈的東西兩岸大小智庫幫他們出謀獻計並引導輿論。這導致過去三十年美國的產業結構愈來愈集中化，強者恆強，大者恆大，壟斷與獨占資本橫行。這也必然導致嚴重的腐敗與尋租。這些占據寡頭與獨占地位的巨型企業可以靠壓制競爭者而攫取超額利潤，他們的高獲利模式主要並非源於創新與效率，而是靠其市場壟斷地位以及左右法律與政府政策的政治影響力，讓其可以併購同行、濫用智慧財產權保護與法律訴訟，或享受合法避稅與超額租稅補貼
社會分裂與政治敗壞
全球化的紅利與風險之分配嚴重不均
主流政治人物紛紛失去這批選民的信任，因為這些熟面孔不是已經被利益集團徹底綁架，就是面對經濟與社會難題束手無策，選民寧可寄希望於毫無從政經驗的新手
新自由主義思維頌揚個人自由，但也同時獎勵自私、自利與貪婪，並鼓勵對物質欲望無止境的追求。美國富裕階層的所得稅率在發達國家中是最低的，而且跨國企業都盡可能將利潤隱藏在國外租稅天堂，他們自私自利到連最基本的社會義務都設法擺脫
A family is a system for living and raising children.
Management is a system of people for allocating resources and regulating the activity
In a primitive society, the existing systems were those arising in nature and their characteristics were accepted as divinely given and as being beyond man's comprehension or control. Man simply adjusted himself to the natural systems around him and to the family and tribal social systems which are created by gradual evolution rather than by design. Man adapted to systems without feeling compelled to understand them.
laws serves as a guide to permissible behavior......But no one knows the entire legal code as set down in the statute books. Instead, a guiding moral structure conveying the fundamental nature of right and wrong helps us to estimate approximately what the law must be.
文化翻譯
More than「八尺門的辯護人」從上週開始，我就被戲劇「八尺門的辯護人」深深吸引。主要的原因不是戲劇的場景就在我家附近的八尺門地區，而是此劇連結多元社會議題的能力，將司法正義，移工，原漢以及漁業經濟發展議題的關切透過戲劇的方式表達出來，真是引人入勝。...
國內所謂的「科技與人文的對話」，幾乎都是外行人的連篇鬼話，無助於溝通，反而平添彼此的誤解與刻板印象。 關鍵在於：對話雙方沒有任何人真的認真跨越藩籬，去深刻地認識另一岸的文化與精髓。 即便是英國 C. P. Snow 著名的演講 " The Two Cultures "...
原出處 《論文寫作完全求生手冊》的〈 附錄二、文化人類學的兩難 〉討論紀爾茲（Clifford Geertz）的代表作 〈厚描：朝向文化的詮釋理論〉，並以他的〈深層遊戲：關於巴厘島鬥雞的記述〉 為例進一步闡述他的論點。 《論文寫作完全求生手冊》原本企圖將每...
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